Voters in Virginia today (those few who actually go to the polls) will choose which of three Democratic Party hopefuls will become the party's candidate for Governor, to run against Republican candidate Robert McDonnell in November.
That November election will be one of only two significant state-level elections (New Jersey will also elect a Governor) to take place between last fall's Presidential election and the Congressional elections of 2010. Obviously, the temptation to use these two state elections to predict trends for November 2010 will be great. So great that some forecasters are out of the gate early, trying to read the tea leaves for 2010 even before we know who the candidates are. All these prognostications will give us something to talk about, but can they really be any more accurate than tossing a few chicken bones, or flipping a coin? I have my doubts.
After all, each of these elections has its own dynamic. I am skeptical that Virginia's quirky mix of political currents would be useful in predicting a national trend, now or in November. There's even a minor wild card at the primary level, because Virginia has "open" primaries in which Republican voters (whose candidate has already been chosen without a primary) may vote in the Democratic primary today. Beyond that, much depends on the candidates and their respective positions on issues of local interest (e.g., the questions of highway construction and transportation generally) that may not resonate outside the state. As former House Speaker Tip O'Neill once said, "All politics is local."
Over many years, Virginia has tended to be a "red" state. In 2008, the state went for Obama, and in recent years before that, had already elected a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators. Some think 2008 confirmed a Democratic trend in the state. My own view is that it only confirmed George Bush's unpopularity; the state is still fundamentally red, and we're waiting to see if there's really any long-term shift toward the purple. So a Democratic victory in November could confirm the trend - at least within Virginia - but still would be only the ghost of hint of how Republicans would fare elsewhere.
A Republican win in the gubernatorial race will be very difficult to interpret for national signficance. Most likely, it would only reflect Virginia reverting to type, disproving the Democratic-trend theory, but it would say little about the GOP's most pressing national question of whether the party needs to stay with its conservative base or strive to be more inclusive. The Republican candidate appears to have his own answer to that, already stressing middle-ground issues like jobs and traffic congestion; his success here would probably embolden Republican reformers, but likely would not convince the hard-liners of a need to change.
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