Nearly everyone seems to have some advice on what should be done with pending health care legislation now, in the wake of the lightning bolt delivered by a Republican victory in Massachusetts last week. The opinions are all over the map: The effort should be abandoned; Congress should race to vote it in before Brown is seated; the House should vote to approve the Senate bill as is; everyone should go back to the drawing board and fashion a simpler plan involving just the noncontroversial elements that both parties agree on; Democrats should stick to their guns and continue to use their majority to press for their version....
It's an interesting jumble of opinion but I still think it's a bit premature. Obama and the Democrats need to straighten out their political strategy before they can possibly decide how to proceed on health care or other touchy issues.
The process has begun. Obama himself has conceded that he and his team got preoccupied with the legislative program and failed to pay enough attention to undergirding their political support. Since then, he has been playing up populist themes on the hustings. It's a good sign that David Plouffe, who ably managed Obama's campaign, is getting back in the act as an advisor - a guy who understands politics and maybe should have been on board all along. All these steps, taken within just a couple of days, reflect a resiliency and determination on Obama's part. If Republicans had hoped he'd be dilatory, or would just throw in the towel, they will be disappointed.
Still, so many things remain to suss out on the political front:
- how can unity be achieved among Democrats in Congress?
- can Republicans really be expected to vote for even a stripped down health reform bill?
- if they did, would they then claim political credit for it? (they do seem mighty fond of Medicare nowadays, which they opposed tooth and nail).
Those points pale in significance next to one other, however: How can a bunch of fear-crazed, stampeding Congresspeople of both parties be persuaded to vote for anything? The real importance of Scott Brown's win in Massachusetts is that sitting Congressmen and Senators facing election at the end of this year have been buffaloed - they are uncertain how the "angry" voters will react to anything they do. The Republican Party has unceasingly mongered fear in the electorate for the past year and may think this works for them - has worked in Massachusetts - but on the level of the individual Representative in the House, even Republicans now have reason to be concerned about their political base. Unpredictable and largely irrational voters are clearly in a mood to "throw the rascals out," regardless of party, and that has the rascals very concerned.
In this environment, it will be difficult if not impossible to get anything accomplished legislatively until the dust settles. Politicians will be looking for clues about voter moods, and there aren't other major political events coming up to provide those clues. Those with money to spend (like the business tycoons lately enabled by the Supreme Court) or with an audience of ready fanatics will be in a position to create their own dust.
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