Of course anyone familiar with the course of U.S. politics since at least the 1950's is fully expecting the Democratic Party to lose seats in the House and Senate as a result of next November's elections. That's not just the conventional wisdom, it appears also to make sense in the current political context. So, I won't be shocked if the "surprise" I mused about -- that is, a vote that could increase the Democratic majority -- doesn't come to pass.
Still, I believe there are enough unusual currents in play this year, and enough time for them to wreak change, that they may confound the standard expectations of the political pros.
While much has been made of the Senate resignations from Democratic ranks, less has been said about the fact that nearly as many Republicans plan to call it quits; it's just too soon to call any of those races, though some are more predictable than others. In particular, it seems that Dodd has done exactly the right thing by recognizing his own declining popularity but resigning in time to pass the baton to another popular Democrat (state attorney-general Blumenthal) who at this juncture is thought to have a good chance to win. Dorgan reportedly insisted that if he had decided to run again, he could win. The truth of that is doubtful, but if he really believes it, another Democrat might have a chance too.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, some resignations may engender tough fights to choose successor candidates. What role will the tea-party groups play? To the extent that their activisim results in ultraconservative candidates for Senate and House seats, they may reduce their appeal to more centrist Republican voters and make the Democrats' work easier. Also within their own party, Republican pols have to deal with the disparate and sometimes loose-cannon views of a host of self-appointed party spokesmen, from Palin and Gingrich to Limbaugh and Steele (who is publishing a book that's drawing raves of the wrong sort from Republican political pros).
Nonpolitical variables may play an even larger role than anything candidates can say or do. Some analysts suggest that once the health care bill is passed, even voters who fear it will see it in a better light. I doubt that - mainly because most of its provisions won't be in place, and many of its loopholes won't be evident, soon enough to affect views. More likely, though, is that the economy could begin to rebound; a little progress on mortgages and jobs, the relative calm or flareup of our wars -- all could produce a very different environment over the next eleven months.
In short, a political scene with more variability than usual, and one that will be interesting to watch, even if we end up with the "usual" result of the President's party losing ground in Congress.
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