Was I imagining things? I thought I had been reading about job-satisfaction surveys that suggested a surprisingly high proportion of people were pretty pleased with their jobs despite the generally poor economic outlook. Then I read another, suggesting that a majority are dissatisfied. No, as it turns out, I'm not addled (well, not in this particular instance anyway) -- it's just that on any subject, different surveys, relying on different methods, different questions, and a different pool of respondents, can often get surprisingly different results.
The situation is similar with respect to economic indicators, as some numbers and experts suggest the economy is approaching rebound, while others point toward further deterioration. Again, it seems to depend on what factors you choose to look at. A Washington Post item , for example, zeroes in on the conflicting signals being given right now by statistics on pending home sales (labeled a negative indicator) versus new orders for manufactured goods (reported as a positive).
Even the real meaning of these indicators is subject to interpretation, however. For example, the Post's chart on pending home sales does indicate that sales for November were down compared to October - but I wish they'd provided a longer look back at these statistics. True, the November 2009 new-home-purchase index of 96 looks low compared to October 2009 (at 115), but it's still very good compared to last November (82). It seems natural to me that in most of the country, home purchases tend to drop seasonally. In 2009 as in 1999 or 2005, there just tend to be fewer buyers out there looking as fall gives way to winter. Further, why be surprised that new-contract signings ebb as special programs for first-time buyers phase out? So, is this statistic truly bad news, or is it really good news? Most likely, somewhere in between.
I think the one thing we can conclude in times like these is that mixed signals, whether relating to people's happiness, job satisfaction, or the state of the economy, are bound to develop. They reflect, perhaps, that not everything is changing at the same rate, that some sectors will recover more quickly than others, or that some may disappear or redefine themselves entirely. Yes, when everyone is uniformly glum, or conversely when no one can see the slightest cloud ahead in a blue sky of prosperity, that's when we should look for the exits. But currently, views are mixed. From my perspective, that's positive.
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