Morning Fog

Deceptive Words

Words, like statistics, can lie.  It's irritating when people who should know better use a word, whose meaning we suppose we know, to lead us astray.

Two recent cases come to mind.  First, a report by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation telling us that up to 25% of U.S. households don't have access to banks.  Generally, we think access -- the ability to obtain something -- is a good thing.  We believe Americans ought to have access to a good education, for example; and at least some of us think everybody ought to have access to health insurance.  So should we be alarmed when so many of us don't have access to banks? 

But there are banks on every corner.  How could so many possibly lack "access" to banks?  It turns out that the people the study calls "unbanked" (i.e., who have no bank accounts) or "underbanked" (i.e., have bank accounts but don't use them for any or all banking functions) do have access.  They choose not to use it, but they have it.   I suspect this is self-serving exaggeration on the FDIC's part, intended to show that it has an urgent mission.  That's how budget increases are justified.  Whatever the reason for the research, it's fairly meaningless. 

In another recent example, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released a study purporting to show that more than 16 million Americans suffer from "food insecurity," up from only about 12 million just a couple of years ago. The temptation for most of us, and especially for headline-hungry journalists, is to assume that "food insecurity" is the same as "hunger."  This implies a very serious crisis; people starving in America because of the bad economy.  Well, we do know that hunger exists in the U.S., and that it's growing, because nearly every food kitchen and food assistance program in the country has reported an upsurge in numbers of applicants over the past year or more.

However, the USDA study actually tells us very little about the increase in the ranks of the hungry.  Charles Lane has done an excellent job of debunking the study, and the meaning of the term "food insecurity."  It's worth a read, but to cite just one of Lane's examples, people were asked if they had ever worried about running out of food - not whether they ran out, just whether they worried about it.  If so, they could be counted as "food insecure."  If they lost weight, perhaps only a pound, they might be called "food insecure."  Another case of "garbage in, garbage out."  What real purpose can this sort of information serve? 

Short Takes For Summer

With summer fully and officially upon us, another small collection of non-sequiturs and self-deceptions from current news and events: 

Palin's Failin's:  Pride of place surely must go to today's disclosure that Sarah Palin will resign as Governor of Alaska in order to....who knows! ... I'm betting on something iffy that may come to light soon.  If not, will she try to garner support to run for President?  Is it her self-delusion, or am I myself suffering from delusion?  Unfortunately, past history demonstrates that lack of qualification is no bar to getting elected President, so perhaps Palin hopes to steal a march on those dirty ol' Democrats and their "national-media" allies by becoming the first woman to run for President.  She may want to consider whether the staunchly traditional Republican core can be expected to support a woman for the Big Job.   

The Oscarmom: The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has announced that in future, there will be 10 Oscar nominations for Best Picture, rather than just 5.  Huh?  It's a rare year when Hollywood produces even five excellent movies.  Presumably the Academy is responding to critics who have complained the annual Oscar show is not long enough.

Fruits of Health Care:  Anyone who may doubt that there's always a way for a creative corporation to find a way around the spirit and letter of a law may want to read "Cherry-Picking" in this week's Forbes, which describes how health insurance companies work hard to select only the healthiest, least costly population to insure, and flatly predicts that even if reform legislation mandates HMOs to cover anyone who applies, it won't happen.

Franken Sense:  The Minnesota Supreme Court has finally got around to certifying a winner in last fall's Senate election.  It's about time (see "The GOP and Democracy" among my Short Takes about a month ago).  Some see this as a milestone because a 60th Democrat in the Senate supposedly makes the party filibuster-proof, but I expect it will mean little in practice.

Republicans to U.S. Public: Buzz Off!   For a couple of decades, Republicans have been busy mastering the art of relabeling issues and proposals they don't like but can't defeat with reasoned argument.  (Sample: "inheritance tax" becomes "death tax.") The game continues, as this article reports, but I was impressed by the hubris by this attitude attributed to a GOP terminology advisor, who "conceded that the public wants real reform and ... the only way Republicans can defeat Obama's plan is by co-opting the language of reform."  So if people want it, the GOP needs to defeat it?  Can this be good politics?  It worked once; let's see if we the people have sense enough to not allow ourselves to be deceived once again.

Unpopularity Contest:  The Washington Post editorializes today for our senior military to provide the President its best advice without trying to second-guess what he wants to hear.  Absolutely right.  They think the generals should be asking for more troops.  Maybe.  But the editors get addled when they admit that "a larger American force could prompt a backlash by Afghans," but "that is not the problem at the moment," because most Afghans still support the U.S. presence.  So I guess the answer is to increase troop presence until we do get backlash?  Let's not forget that no number of troops we could field would allow us to provide absolute security in Afghanistan's rugged hinterlands.  The whole premise of the administration's approach is a limited-size force with limited objectives.

Survey: Know Any Curious Slogans?

A few days ago on television I heard the story of Hardin, a small town in Montana with a big, brand-new prison that for various reasons hasn't been put into use.  Hardin's officials (unlike Montana's two U.S. Senators and many other Congresspeople) were actively campaigning to have the detainees from Guantánamo transferred to their high-security jail, figuring it would bring at least a few jobs to the town.  Now, that's the good old American spirit of enterprise!

This report also reminded me of my father's home town, Leavenworth, Kansas, which boasts three major prisons within the city or its environs: one federal, one state, and one military (at Ft. Leavenworth), plus several smaller ones such as a Federal Marshals Detention Center.  Although a century and a half ago Leavenworth was considered a good bet to become the region's "big city," upstart Kansas City, a little farther downstream, eventually outstripped it.  As far as I know, the prison facilities are the town's main economic activity nowadays. 

The town's official motto now is "The First City of Kansas" (meaning the oldest).  But a few years ago I happened to pass through there and picked up this visitor's guide with the slogan "How About Doin' Some Time in Leavenworth?"  Well, when life gives you lemons, you make lemonade, but still, this seemed to be a less-than-perfect catchphrase to attract visitors.  

I began to think about the possibilities for other counterintuitive mottos.  My own "town" (actually a county)  - Arlington, Virginia - is mainly famous outside our immediate area for Arlington National Cemetery, though we also have the Pentagon, Reagan National Airport, and lots of history.  Now, a national cemetery is more prestigious than your run-of-the-mill one, but still, you have to admit, having a cemetery as your town's main identity is a bit of a downer.  I tried to think of a motto...hmm... how about "Arlington - Not As Dead As You Think!"?  Maybe I'll try that one out on the county board...

I'd love to hear comments from any readers, if you've got an idea for a lemonade-type slogan for a town or maybe a company (will GM need a new slogan?).  Use your imagination for a town that doesn't have a motto, or let 'Morning Fog' know about a real one you've encountered.