From all appearances, it's time to focus the political spotlight on electoral contests at the local level. Indeed, there a number of interesting factors at work which promise to make Election 2010 both fascinating and unpredictable. The key in each case is that incumbent candidates of both parties face challenges in primaries, or in the general election - usually for being too "centrist." How those races shape up will tell us a lot about whether voters are really fed up with deadlock or not.
In Colorado, Democrat Betsy Markey, a Democrat in a largely Republican district, is under fire after voting for the health care bill. The Republicans are licking their chops at the prospect of winning the District back this fall, yet evidence that they can or will do so, at this point, is lacking - the outcome is anybody's guess. In Arkansas, incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln is challenged by the Lt. Governor, who campaigns on the idea that Lincoln is not liberal enough.
And there are many other examples now, particularly of an incumbent being challenged in the primary by a member of his own party who -- unlike in "normal" times -- seems to have some chance of prevailing. There's plenty enough ferment that some of the conventional wisdom may not prevail this time around: the suggestion, for example, that fundraising success consistently determines winners strikes me as rather weak this time.
Meanwhile, Robert Samuelson, who too often injects his political views into his economic analysis, has written an insightful consideration on the current state of politics with no economic angle at all. The bottom line: "The ultimate danger is that the poisonous polarization of elites spreads to the country at large." Yes.
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