Obviously there's a lot of excitement in the Near East and across the Maghreb in recent months. People in countries from Morocco to Iran seem to have woken up to the possibilities of democracy; change is clearly in the wind, though its direction will be different in each country.
In considering the long-term effects of what's happening, I'm a bit of a contrarian to a lot of what I'm reading in the media right now:
Democracy: The democratic movements won't succeed everywhere. In some places, the reformers will reach accommodation with governments, dictators, or kings; in others, they'll be coopted, perhaps even crushed. Where they do succeed fully, we can expect a long period of adjustment, with plenty of instability, as nations without much in the way of democratic institutions or traditions attempt to build them. It will be messy. Politically speaking, democracies are inherently stable over the long term but can be very unstable in actuality over short-term fluctuations. Dictatorships are inherently unstable, but can produce long periods of stability until something disturbs their status quo.
Petroleum: While speculators and fearful investors are ratcheting up the cost of petroleum products, and we're back to those annoying, breathless reports in news media about how the price of gas has crept up another 2 cents today, I think a lot of the fear is being oversold. True, we probably won't go back to $1-a-gallon gasoline "anytime soon" (as newscasters are wont to say these days - I'd say "never"). On the other hand, I believe that as, or if, democratic systems - even radical ones - supplant authoritarian ones, there is no evidence to suggest any petroleum producer is going to try to cut off supplies to its "enemies." Trade trumps politics, and countries sell what they have to sell. Thus there is probably an upper limit on how high prices can go. Further, there's a paradox that favors the oil importing countries, one that some big petroproducers have actively sought to downplay: Every uptick in oil prices hastens effort to dispense with oil as a fuel.
Terrorism: As noted, the current political turmoil creates instability. Terrorists always look to exploit instability from any source. Not to downplay the dangers, but the positive factors also need to be considered: Groups like al-Qaeda may find themselves suddenly working against the tide of democratic movements. They will certainly need to rethink their strategies. Adapting to democratic environments might prove difficult for many reasons, not the least of which is that such groups don't want "power to the people." Most of them think god, not man, should set the rules - they work toward theocracy, not democracy. As nations democratize, they are less, not more, likely to offer breeding grounds or political support for terrorists, though of course for some time to come, "uncertainty" remains the watchword for the counterterrorism effort.
