As deadlock continues, some random thoughts about the tea party faction, its impact, its goals, and its tactics.
Notwithstanding widespread commentary, including my own, about the ignorance, stubbornness, or political or economic naivete of the current crop of freshman Republican legislators, one thing must be granted: They have had a significant impact, by forcing more "experienced" politicians and the nation as a whole to focus on some of the problems of the antiquated process by which we formulate our country's fiscal policy. Concern about debt levels, our deficit, and funding our social, health and military entitlements are not misplaced. It may in fact be time for us collectively to review current practices and get serious about reforming some of them.
Having achieved that, however, they need to be careful how they play their cards. They're at the height of their influence now, they recognize it, and they are using it to full advantage. They presumably want the impact they've had to be lasting, yet I suggest their current approach is more likely to guarantee that changes they succeed in making will be short-term.
First, their advocacy of rather esoteric and impossibly extreme solutions puts them on the lunatic fringe. I have in mind here the "balanced budget" amendment, which would make us all hostage to something that is unwise and probably impossible; and the idea that taxes can't be part of the solution, which is tantamount to a two-handed man fighting a dragon by purposely tying one hand behind his back. Second, their unyielding attitude, and the negative effects it will have on the economy, will not redound to their benefit at the polls. Many of them will not live politically to fight another day. They may win a battle, but the war will go on and they won't be on the battlefield.
If we breach the August 2 deadline, we can expect to hear a lot of argument about the magnitude of the effects on the economy and who is to blame for them. The conservative freshmen will proclaim that any economic downturn that occurs is not as serious as others predicted. Indeed, it's possible that statistics won't show a huge dip right away. Nevertheless, we shouldn't deceive ourselves about the effects of failure to reach agreement -- they will be deep and wide. Some have already occurred, as the financial markets have factored in the increasingly glum prospects, and values have dropped. Some may occur rapidly, but many more will take time to be felt, and will be felt for decades to come in terms of lost confidence in the U.S. economy, a slowdown in the already glacial pace of recovery, and the opportunity cost of putting off job-creating investment.