A Washington Post blogger, Matt O'Brien, is telling us that "the economy may never bounce back." This is based on a chart he credits to Lawrence Summers, showing how the Congressional Budget Office has lowered its forecast for U.S. economic performance in each year since 2007. And even now, actual GDP continues below the CBO's lowered estimate for the current year.
Well, if so, maybe this is the bright tomorrow that we were promised back in 1960 or so.. Decades ago, it was commonplace for economic pundits to talk in glowing terms about the economy of the future, in which we would all be freed from labor by advances in productive technology. No need to work! Paradise.
Even at that time, though, some commonsensical folks wondered how that would work out. If hardly anyone worked, no one would have "jobs," but it turns out people for the most part need and want some kind of productive activity. And besides, if no one had a job, where would they derive the income they would need to enjoy the good life? The cloud of paradise has a black lining.
Personally I doubt we need to worry. Where economies are concerned, it seems it's usually when no one can see an avenue to improvement that things turn around, often in ways that economists haven't been able to predict.
Oh, and speaking of predictions, politicians are usually no better at them. The next Congress, the next President, will implement new programs intended to address our economic ills at just about the time when the last batch of programs is kicking in with effect. They'll be happy to take credit for any improvements, and we will very likely draw the wrong lesson about what works.
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